Modeling and Application of Fractional-Order Economic Growth Model with Time Delay

This paper proposes a fractional-order economic growth model with time delay based on the Solow to describe path and explore underlying factors. It effectively captures memory characteristics in operations by adding lag capital stock. The proposed is presented form of fractional differential equations system, sufficient conditions for local stability are obtained. In simulation, theoretical results verified sensitivity analysis performed individual parameters. Based model, we predict China’s GDP next thirty years through optimization find medium-to-high-speed short term. Furthermore, application indicate that China facing disappearance demographic dividend deceleration accumulation. Therefore, it urgent increase total factor productivity (TFP) transform its into trajectory dependent TFP growth.